Hope and Pray

A friend forwarded me an email yesterday about the situation in Egypt. I am sure some of you have seen it, too. “Dear Egypt,” it read, “Please don’t destroy the Pyramids. We will not rebuild them. Sincerely, The Jews.” But the revolution in Egypt is a bigger deal for Judaism than the status of the pyramids that our people may or may not have built millennia ago. The uprising in Egypt has real impact on the State of Israel and on the United States, and on our place in the world as Americans and as Jews.

As you probably know, the situation in Egypt is moving faster than anyone can keep up and still, we don’t know what the outcome might be. In a piece for The Washington Post, Glenn Kessler outlines three possible scenarios in Egypt by turning to historical parallels. Could Egypt face “an eerie repeat of the 1979 revolution?” Will there be a transition to democracy like Indonesia in 1998? Or does Egypt face something in between, like “the initial outcome of the Romanian revolution of 1989?”

The Iran scenario, few would argue, is the worst case scenario for Israel, for the United States, even for Egypt. The Iranian revolution was originally led by moderates, a broad swath of the Iranian population seeking to depose Iran’s Shah, a leader, who like Mubarak, “was an anchor of U.S. power in the Middle East who maintained relations with Israel.” But when he was thrown out of government, the Islamist leadership of the long-exiled Ayatollah seized power, smothering the movement that had brought about the revolution. If this were to happen, Egypt would likely stop cooperating with Israel, especially in regards to Hamas. The Egyptian efforts to secure the border with Israel and prevent military supplies from entering Gaza would all but end. Hamas, could rapidly re-arm and its military power could allow for missiles to reach as far as Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion Airport.

“This parallel is imperfect – there is no Egyptian spiritual or religious leader living in Paris awaiting a triumphant return to Cairo.” But the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist movement that, though it originated in Egypt, “has long been an illegal but semi-tolerated force in Egyptian politics.” It could be poised to fill the power vacuum that exists in Egypt. Former State Department official Leslie Gelb says, “If they do gain control, it’s going to be almost impossible for the people to take it back.”

The second scenario, Indonesia’s transition to democracy, could be a model for the best possible outcome. “In 1998, President Suharto’s 32 years of authoritarian rule came to an end. He was another longtime U.S. ally whose departure was deeply feared by the White House. But in the end, the world’s most populous Muslim country made a messy and long transition to democracy – and remained a key partner of the United States.” For Israel, the best way for this scenario to play out might be for Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman to be elected to power with true democracy so that peace with Israel could be preserved. The parallels between this scenario and Egypt are greater. Like Indonesia, Egypt has a relatively secular tradition, a strong military that, at least until now, has refused to repress protestors, “and an uprising led by a mix of youth and civic society.”

The Romanian revolution is more of a middle-of-the-road scenario. Not ideal, but not catastrophic either. In 1989, Romanian revolutionaries overthrew their dictator and assassinated him. “But within months, the military and Communist elite had engineered their survival, with the designated president…winning 85 percent of the vote in a May 1990 election.” Unfortunately, the government continued to control the media and elections were still manipulated. The driving force in making the Romanian revolution a success in the long run was their desire to become a member of NATO and the European Union, options that aren’t present for Egypt. For Israel, this scenario could be ‘good enough’ if Suleiman were to be elected and if there were a few cosmetic reforms that would give the illusion of change.

However things play out in the long run, one thing is true now for Israel. Israelis feel more vulnerable about security. For over thirty years, Israel has not had to significantly worry about its southern border with the Arab world’s most populous nation. Though our peace with Egypt has been described as a 'cold peace,' it has been an asset for both countries. Until now, Israel in particular has no longer had to contemplate a two- or three-front war.

All of that might change. Israel may need to expand its military force along the Israeli-Egyptian border, siphoning money away from other needs in Israel. It is surprising how little Israel has figured into Egypt’s uprising. And this is a good thing. There have been a few random moments of attention on Israel – an effigy of Mubarak wearing a star of David, a sign calling on an end to Israel – but by and large, the protestors have focused their attention internally. They want political freedom and they want jobs. These are goals with which we can all identify. If and how they accomplish these goals, though, is another question.

We do not know how the story in Egypt will end. Neither do the Egyptians. All we can do is wait. It will take generations to really understand how today plays out for the Egyptian people. In our cycle of Torah readings, we are in the midst of our own liberation story. Only a short while ago we fled, dissatisfied by the life that we had in Egypt. We struggled to change our situation and ultimately, we found ourselves in the wilderness, unsure of our future. We needed a strong leader. There was riff-raff among us, the erev rav, the mixed multitude that left Egypt with us. And there were lots of agendas, lots of people struggling for power and control. In the future, we’ll see the rebellion of Korach and a challenge of Moses’ and Aaron’s leadership. We’ll see Mahlah, Noa, Hoglah, Milcah and Tirzah, the daughters of Zelophehad, challenge the laws of inheritance bringing greater equality among the Israelite men and women. This week, we read the details of the construction of the Tabernacle, which tradition teaches us God had us build not because God needed it, but because we were feeling lost and needed a place to worship God.

In our transitional moment, which lasts a generation in the wilderness, at least, we seek a strong leader who can make sure the people’s needs are a priority. Our text tells us that the Tabernacle was constructed with gifts brought by every person whose heart moved him or her to be involved. Every giver that wanted to offer a gift had to be included, no matter how big or small the gift. Every voice that wanted to speak had to be heard. Only a leader who could respect the rights of the individual and simultaneously make the community’s needs a priority would succeed. The Israelites in this week’s Torah portion, in the weeks and even months ahead, do not yet know how it will all turn out. The Egyptians of today, protesting, uprising, leading a revolution, do not yet know how their narrative will end, either. All we could do in the wilderness was to hope and pray for a leader strong enough to guide us through that incredibly powerful, transitional moment. All that we can do alongside modern day Egypt and its neighbors, especially Israel, is to hope and pray for a leader strong enough to include the voices of every Egyptian, to keep the people’s best interest at heart, and to lead Egypt to a successful and peaceful future. Ken y’hi ratzon, may it be God’s will.